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Thoughts about a post Brexit future - Consumer's plans

Thoughts about a post Brexit future - Consumer's plans

On a day when Deloitte have published their Q2 survey* likening the drop in business confidence to the 2008 crash, and Japan's Softbank have bid £24bn for Arm Holdings*, despite post Brexit fears, it is not entirely clear what the future holds.

Lots has been said and written about Brexit, much of it based on speculation and inference. Business is so much about confidence that fears can become self-fulfilling prophesies. Arkenford is an evidence based consultancy; we seek to base our insight and recommendations on robust analysis of our client’s data and their customer’s perspectives. Therefore, we thought, amongst all the hype, we would give our panellists a chance to express in their own terms why they voted as they did and what they think about the future.

We ran an open survey running from the 28th of June to the 1st of July asking 1000 members of our QArk panel:

  • What were the most important issues that influenced their vote
  • Who they trusted most during the campaign, and
  • What they think will happen now

Data was weighted to reflect the outcome of the referendum and the socio-demographic pattern of voters.

In our first blog we report on what are panellists think about the future in the immediate aftermath of the vote.

What British Consumers are thinking and planning

As might be expected opinion about our future is strongly influenced by how people voted. Remainers are pessimistic while Leavers are less fearful.

Remain voters

anticipate negative economic outcomes to come from Brexit:

  • Price rises (62%)
  • Drops in the value of their homes (28%)

As a result, 27% expect to spend less and save more, (13% expect to spend more)

Remain voters

Leave voters

are more optimistic:

  • 51% believe that their job is no less secure after Brexit, and
  • 16% expect prices will rise and only 15% think they will need to spend less and save

As a result, 27% expect to spend less and save more, (13% expect to spend more)

Leave voters

Post-Brexit, Leavers clearly want to support British companies; 39% said they plan to buy more British made goods.

With regard to holidays in Europe a majority of voters on both sides believed that Brexit will have no impact on their European holiday plans, though Leavers were more likely to think this.

Across all voters 13% said they were less likely to holiday in Europe and 12% said they were more likely to do so.

In conclusion the views of consumers, like much of the commentary to date, appears to be determined by people’s views of Brexit. There is yet to emerge a clear post Brexit consensus which is hardly surprising so close to the result. The vast majority of consumer’s do not expect to change their holiday choice or saving behaviour in the short term. There may even be some opportunities for brands to promote the British origins or their products as long as this avoids any ‘little England’ connotations.

* http://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html
* http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272